数据之美——聚焦全球器官捐献发展趋势

器官移植术是20世纪出现的针对器官功能衰竭的最有效治疗方法，每年拯救全球超过12万例患者。但供器官短缺的现状，与器官移植技术和辅助药物的发展不匹配，制约了器官移植事业的发展。我国自2015年起已成为全球器官捐献和移植大国之一，2017年公民逝世后器官捐献数量超过5 000例，占全球捐献总量的15%以上。黄洁夫教授总结的器官捐献与移植"中国模式"得到了世界卫生组织、国际移植界的高度重视和充分肯定。本文通过整理全球及各国的器官捐献与移植数据，剖析全球现状与发展趋势，进一步探索我国公民器官捐献的影响因素并提出针对性的应对策略，以期实现我国器官捐献和移植的"自给自足"。     

前房注射卡波姆建立大鼠高眼压模型的观察

目的　前房注射卡波姆建立大鼠高眼压模型，观察卡波姆升眼压效果及对大鼠眼前节和视网膜的影响。方法　随机选取30只SD大鼠，注射前3 d早晚测量基线眼压。右眼定为实验眼，左眼定为对照眼，右眼放出房水后将30 μL的5 g·L^-1卡波姆混悬液注入前房，每日早10时、晚22时在大鼠清醒状态下测量眼压。每周进行双眼眼前节照相并对比。4周末处死26只大鼠（另4只持续观察眼压变化至注射后9周）并取双眼眼球行HE染色，观察实验眼与对照眼视网膜形态，对比视网膜厚度及房角形态。结果　注射前，实验眼白天和夜间眼压分别为（11.10±0.90）mmHg（1 kPa=7.5 mmHg）和（11.92±1.07）mmHg，对照眼分别为（11.22±1.07）mmHg和（11.76±1.08）mmHg；实验眼与对照眼相比，白天、夜间眼压差异均无统计学意义（均为 P＞0.05）；白天与夜间眼压相比，实验眼、对照眼差异均有统计学意义（均为P<0.05）。卡波姆在前房中呈现出弥散型和沉积型两种存在方式，弥散型和沉积型大鼠1周内眼压分别为（17.83±3.54）mmHg和（13.00±1.55）mmHg，两者相比差异具有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。注射后第1天至第19天，实验眼与对照眼白天眼压相比差异均具有统计学意义（均为P＜0.05）；注射后第1天至第27天，实验眼与对照眼夜间眼压相比差异均具有统计学意义（均为P＜0.05）。实验眼视网膜形态发生改变，注射后4周视网膜厚度为（254.70±21.80）μm，与对照眼的（346.73±24.63）μm相比，差异有统计学意义（P=0.00）。实验眼前房充满卡波姆及虹膜的混合成分，紧贴角膜内皮并延伸至房角，堵塞小梁网结构，正常虹膜形态消失；对照眼房角形态正常。结论　前房注射卡波姆建立大鼠高眼压模型，可维持高眼压4周以上，昼夜眼压差异较为明显，夜间眼压较白天更高，4周后视网膜出现高眼压损伤后的表现。     

监测数据统计分析模型在生态学研究中的应用

近年来，环境监测、疾病监测等各种监测网络不断健全，监测系统成为开展生态学研究的重要数据来源。监测数据类型包括了横断面数据、时间序列数据和面板数据，涉及暴露、结局和混杂3个维度。针对该数据的信息属性和结构特点，相关统计学方法逐渐发展完善，出现了一些新的方法、模型。基于数据的时空属性，本文对监测数据在生态学研究中常用模型的原理、适用条件及优劣进行了综述。     

行为-结构化-关系干预模式对短期住院孤独症谱系障碍儿童的疗效分析

目的 探讨以行为-结构化-关系(BSR)干预模式对短期住院孤独症谱系障碍(ASD)儿童的干预疗效,为改善ASD儿童的预后提供参考依据。方法 选取2015年12月－2016年12月确诊为ASD的2~6岁儿童141例,随机分为治疗组和对照组。治疗组ASD儿童均接受BSR模式的短期课程训练,训练课程包括个别辅导、游戏课、运动课、音乐课等,每天训练时间6 h,持续1个月;对照组ASD儿童处于干预等待,接受随访观察和评估。所有ASD儿童干预前、后均接受儿童心理教育评估(第三版)(PEP-3)来进行各方面能力变化的评估。结果 治疗组、对照组干预前各副测验的原积分差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。两组ASD儿童干预后认知、语言理解、模仿、情感表达、社会互动、行为特征-非语言、适应行为的原积分比较,差异均有统计学意义(t=2.41、2.02、4.14、3.69、4.42、2.69、2.96,P<0.05);但小肌肉、大肌肉、自理的原积分比较,差异无统计学意义(t=-1.13、-1.05、-0.84,P>0.05)。结论 BSR干预模式能够有效改善短期住院ASD儿童的预后,可推广用于儿童ASD的治疗。     

TcVac1 vaccine delivery by intradermal electroporation enhances vaccine induced immune protection against Trypanosoma cruzi infection in mice

The efforts for the development and testing of vaccines against Trypanosoma cruzi infection have increased during the past years. We have designed a TcVac series of vaccines composed of T. cruzi derived, GPI-anchored membrane antigens. The TcVac vaccines have been shown to elicit humoral and cellular mediated immune responses and provide significant (but not complete) control of experimental infection in mice and dogs. Herein, we aimed to test two immunization protocols for the delivery of DNA-prime/DNA-boost vaccine (TcVac1) composed of TcG2 and TcG4 antigens in a BALB/c mouse model. Mice were immunized with TcVac1 through intradermal/electroporation (IDE) or intramuscular (IM) routes, challenged with T. cruzi, and evaluated during acute phase of infection. The humoral immune response was evaluated through the assessment of anti-TcG2 and anti-TcG4 IgG subtypes by using an ELISA. Cellular immune response was assessed through a lymphocyte proliferation assay. Finally, clinical and morphopathological aspects were evaluated for all experimental animals. Our results demonstrated that when comparing TcVac1 IDE delivery vs IM delivery, the former induced significantly higher level of antigen-specific antibody response (IgG2a?+?IgG2b?>?IgG1) and lymphocyte proliferation, which expanded in response to challenge infection. Histological evaluation after challenge infection showed infiltration of inflammatory cells (macrophages and lymphocytes) in the heart and skeletal tissue of all infected mice. However, the largest increase in inflammatory infiltrate was observed in TcVac1_IDE/Tc mice when compared with TcVac1_IM/Tc or non-vaccinated/infected mice. The extent of tissue inflammatory infiltrate was directly associated with the control of tissue amastigote nests in vaccinated/infected (vs. non-vaccinated/infected) mice. Our results suggest that IDE delivery improves the protective efficacy of TcVac1 vaccine against T. cruzi infection in mice when compared with IM delivery of the vaccine.     

Penalized variable selection for accelerated failure time models with random effects

Accelerated failure time (AFT) models allowing for random effects are linear mixed models under the log-transformation of survival time with censoring and describe dependence in correlated survival data. It is well known that the AFT models are useful alternatives to frailty models. To the best of our knowledge, however, there is no literature on variable selection methods for such AFT models. In this paper, we propose a simple but unified variable-selection procedure of fixed effects in the AFT random-effect models using penalized h-likelihood (HL). We consider four penalty functions (ie, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), adaptive LASSO, smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD), and HL). We show that the proposed method can be easily implemented via a slight modification to existing h-likelihood estimation procedures. We thus demonstrate that the proposed method can also be easily extended to AFT models with multilevel (or nested) structures. Simulation studies also show that the procedure using the adaptive LASSO, SCAD, or HL penalty performs well. In particular, we find via the simulation results that the variable selection method with HL penalty provides a higher probability of choosing the true model than other three methods. The usefulness of the new method is illustrated using two actual datasets from multicenter clinical trials.     

Impact of vaccination delay on deaths averted by pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: Modeled effects in 8 country scenarios

Delay in vaccination from schedule has been frequently documented and varies by vaccine, dose, and setting. Vaccination delay may result in the failure to prevent deaths that would have been averted by on-schedule vaccination.We constructed a model to assess the impact of delay in vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) on under-five mortality. The model accounted for the week of age-specific risk of pneumococcal mortality, direct effect of vaccination, and herd protection. For each model run, a cohort of children were exposed to the risk of mortality and protective effect of PCV for each week of age from birth to age five. The model was run with and without vaccination delay and difference in number of deaths averted was calculated. We applied the model to eight country-specific vaccination scenarios, reflecting variations in observed vaccination delay, PCV coverage, herd effect, mortality risk, and vaccination schedule. As PCV is currently being scaled up in India, we additionally evaluated the impact of vaccination delay in India under various delay scenarios and coverage levels.We found deaths averted by PCV with and without delay to be comparable in all of the country scenarios when accounting for herd protection. In India, the greatest relative difference in deaths averted was observed at low coverage levels and greatest absolute difference was observed around 60% vaccination coverage. Under moderate delay scenarios, vaccination delay had modest impact on deaths averted by PCV in India across levels of coverage or vaccination schedule. Without accounting for herd protection, vaccination delay resulted in much greater failure to avert deaths.Our model suggests that realistic vaccination delay has a minimal impact on the number of deaths averted by PCV when accounting for herd effect. High population coverage can largely over-ride the deleterious effect of vaccination delay through herd protection.